The Application of Collaborative Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) to the Iolanda Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia


Millennium Challenge Corporation


USACE-IWR; Millennium Challenge Account-Zambia; Lusaka Water and Sewerage Company

Problem Statement

MCC funded infrastructure investments require robustness for a range of uncertain futures in difficult developing environments in order to achieve intended poverty reduction objectives.

Case Study

This case study demonstrates the application of Collaborative Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia’s principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant’s ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process.

The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. This assessment is followed by the generation of a range of possible future climate states using relatively simple modified bootstrapping methods to explore non‐stationary climate state futures. The value of these approaches lies in developing future climate states without the use of more complex and costly climate model downscaling methodologies that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many water planners. This work is a user‐centered approach for regional water planning that incorporates plausible climate change risks into decision‐making by absorbing climate uncertainty into the existing water planning process.

Key Concepts

The purpose of the case study is to demonstrate the applicability and value of CRIDA in the development of MCC funded infrastructure investments.

Outcomes & Lessons Learned

While MCC investment decisions in Zambia have already been made, this retrospective case study will provide insight into their climate resilience, and how to operationalize bottom‐up vulnerability assessment approaches within the Millennium Challenge Corporation for evaluating future investments in other countries. CRIDA is simple, defensible, and provides a systematic method using existing data to drive decision‐making.


CRIDA, Zambia, water treatment, vulnerability analysis, hydropower





About the Knowledge Platform

The Knowledge Platform is designed to promote and showcase an emerging set of approaches to water resources management that address climate change and other uncertainties -- increasing the use of "bottom-up approaches" through building capacity towards implementation, informing relevant parties, engaging in discussion, and creating new networks. This is an ongoing project of the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA) funded by the World Bank Group.

Contact AGWA

Alliance for Global Water Adaptation
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Corvallis, Oregon 97330